CB RADAR™ 2025 reveals how optimism bias can distort transformation success—making honest metrics and independent governance essential to real progress.
Transformation programs are rarely short on optimism.
In CB RADAR™ 2025, 72.5% of respondents described their initiatives as “successful.” But when compared to industry benchmarks, that number looks less
like a victory and more like a reflection of perception.
It’s not that leaders are dishonest. It’s that they’re biased, often unconsciously
toward their own success.
“Optimism bias is transformation’s most persistent blind spot.”
The Psychology of Progress
Executives naturally interpret progress through their own lens.
When you’ve invested years, budget, and reputation into a transformation, every milestone feels like proof of success.
But that same pride creates distortion.
Minor wins become validation. Delays become “strategic pivots.” Cost overruns become “lessons learned.”
“Once a transformation begins, leaders start seeing momentum where they should be measuring results.”
The Data Behind the Bias
CB RADAR™ analysis shows that self-reported success rates don’t always align with external outcomes:
- Projects rated as “on time” often exceeded their original scope.
- Programs deemed “complete” were still undergoing stabilization phases.
- “Value realized” frequently meant cost avoidance, not ROI.
The gap between reported success and measured success isn’t malicious, it’s human. But left unchecked, it can lead institutions to declare transformation victory years before the real work is done.
Why Bias Persists
Transformation isn’t just a technical challenge, it’s emotional.
For executives, admitting that success is partial can feel like admitting failure. For teams, it can mean funding risk or loss of momentum.
So the narrative shifts. Wins get amplified. Shortfalls get reframed.
And soon, the story of success becomes more powerful than the evidence itself.
“Every transformation needs governance that tells the truth, even when the truth is uncomfortable.”
Correcting the Lens
Banks that successfully overcome bias build objectivity into their governance.
They define metrics that measure both delivery and outcome.
They empower PMOs to report transparently, even when the news isn’t good. And they conduct independent assessments to benchmark reality against perception.
This isn’t pessimism, it’s maturity.
It’s how leading institutions stay honest about where they stand.
Turning Insight Into Advantage
The goal isn’t to remove optimism, it’s to channel it into better decision-making. When banks balance confidence with evidence, transformation accelerates faster and sticks longer.
CB RADAR™ data shows that programs with independent validation at midpoints are nearly twice as likely to meet both business and delivery goals.
“Transparency isn’t risk, it’s insurance.”
What CB RADAR™ Reveals
CB RADAR™ 2025 exposes a subtle but critical truth:
The biggest challenge in transformation isn’t technology or funding — it’s perception.
Bias blinds institutions to risk, distorts progress, and delays course correction. But when banks make truth part of their operating rhythm, optimism becomes a strategic asset — not a liability.
Read the full CB RADAR™ 2025 report to explore how 113 banks measure and report success and where optimism meets reality.
And if you want to benchmark your own institution’s readiness against the market, you can also try our Core Banking Transformation Readiness Scorecard, which helps you see how your bank stacks up against the themes revealed in CB RADAR™.
CB RADAR™ is not a vendor pitch. It’s a reality check. And in a market where every decision carries long-term consequences, clarity is your strongest advantage.
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